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ADI Analog Devices

semiconductor · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-17

SELL
Intrinsic value$75.05
Price (at call)$362.04
Margin of safety -79.3%
vs market (rating basis) -43.9%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)-2.8%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin36.4%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital0.50
Beta1.21
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)10.2%
Terminal WACC9.3%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF23.40B
PV of terminal value19.06B
Equity value36.37B
÷ shares → per share$75.05

News

bullish +0.60 · 8 articles

  • TXN's Data Center Sales Double: Will This Growth Rate Continue in 2026?
  • 2 of Wall Street’s Favorite Stocks to Target This Week and 1 Facing Challenges
  • Smartphone Chip Stocks Rally While Large-Cap Technology Slips: Skyworks Jumps 11%, Qorvo Rises 7%, Qualcomm Climbs 4%
  • Should You Buy Cirrus Logic Stock Because Its Buyback Got Cheaper?
  • Will AI Data Center‑Driven Communications Growth and Empower Deal Change Analog Devices' (ADI) Narrative?
  • Texas Instruments Is Up 55% in 2026: This Is the Secret Tech Stock You’re Missing Out On
  • ADI's Communications Segment Surges on AI Demand: What's Ahead?
  • Analog Devices Wants Robots to Think Without Nvidia | Is ADI the Next Big AI Stock?

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 13.49B -2.8% 36.4% 4.11B 0 4.11B 3.73B
2 13.20B -2.1% 36.4% 4.02B 0 4.02B 3.31B
3 13.01B -1.4% 36.4% 3.96B 0 3.96B 2.96B
4 12.92B -0.7% 36.4% 3.93B 0 3.93B 2.67B
5 12.91B -0.0% 36.4% 3.93B 0 3.93B 2.42B
6 13.00B 0.7% 36.4% 3.96B 176.39M 3.78B 2.11B
7 13.18B 1.4% 36.4% 4.01B 360.73M 3.65B 1.85B
8 13.46B 2.1% 36.4% 4.10B 551.42M 3.55B 1.63B
9 13.83B 2.8% 36.4% 4.21B 752.51M 3.46B 1.44B
10 14.32B 3.5% 36.4% 4.36B 968.42M 3.39B 1.28B

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-17$362.04 $75.05 -79.3% SELL
2026-08-20$373.26 $62.28 -83.3% STRONG SELL
2026-07-23$386.73 $85.32 -77.9% STRONG SELL
2026-06-24$407.26 $91.34 -77.6% STRONG SELL
2026-06-23$407.26 $99.14 -75.7% STRONG SELL