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AMAT Applied Materials

semiconductor · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-18

SELL
Intrinsic value$127.86
Price (at call)$417.40
Margin of safety -69.4%
vs market (rating basis) -26.1%

Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)3.2%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin36.0%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital1.14
Beta1.60
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)12.0%
Terminal WACC9.4%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF49.48B
PV of terminal value51.30B
Equity value101.47B
÷ shares → per share$127.86

News

bullish +0.40 · 8 articles

  • Nvidia Stock Surge Points To 3 AI Chip Equipment Stocks Worth Watching
  • Top Analyst Reports for Applied Materials, Philip Morris & Valero Energy
  • Applied Materials Edged Higher Behind a $5 Billion India Buildout
  • Dow gains 250 points as oil prices and yields fall after Fed hike
  • Update: US Equity Futures Higher Pre-Bell as Traders Assess Fed Interest-Rate Increase
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) Plans $5 Billion India Semiconductor Research Park
  • Applied Materials vs. Marvell Technology: Which Tech Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
  • Dow futures rally 600 points after Fed rate hike selloff

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 31.83B 3.2% 36.0% 8.65B 872.07M 7.78B 6.95B
2 32.87B 3.3% 36.0% 8.93B 908.51M 8.03B 6.40B
3 33.96B 3.3% 36.0% 9.23B 946.67M 8.28B 5.90B
4 35.08B 3.3% 36.0% 9.54B 986.64M 8.55B 5.43B
5 36.26B 3.4% 36.0% 9.86B 1.03B 8.83B 5.01B
6 37.49B 3.4% 36.0% 10.19B 1.07B 9.12B 4.62B
7 38.76B 3.4% 36.0% 10.54B 1.12B 9.42B 4.26B
8 40.10B 3.4% 36.0% 10.90B 1.17B 9.73B 3.93B
9 41.49B 3.5% 36.0% 11.28B 1.22B 10.06B 3.63B
10 42.94B 3.5% 36.0% 11.67B 1.27B 10.40B 3.35B

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-18$417.40 $127.86 -69.4% SELL
2026-08-21$496.21 $125.85 -74.6% SELL
2026-07-24$562.80 $141.72 -74.8% SELL
2026-06-25$588.97 $143.76 -75.6% STRONG SELL
2026-06-23$585.88 $152.49 -74.0% SELL