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AMD Advanced Micro Devices

semiconductor · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-21

STRONG SELL
Intrinsic value$44.59
Price (at call)$559.82
Margin of safety -92.0%
vs market (rating basis) -58.9%

Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.

⚠ LLM error: empty response; using baseline

The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)13.6%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin18.6%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital0.62
Beta2.20
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)14.9%
Terminal WACC9.5%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF17.86B
PV of terminal value52.62B
Equity value72.80B
÷ shares → per share$44.59

News

bullish +0.30 · 8 articles

  • AMD Stock Jumped 8% Last Week. It Could Bring 325% More, Here’s How.
  • Dow Jones Futures Rise; Can The Market Take Flight? Robinhood, Sandisk, AMD, Moderna Surge Into Buy Areas
  • Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Climb Ahead Of Key China Summit: CRML, APLD, GME, AMD Stocks In Focus
  • Better Artificial Intelligence Stock: Advanced Micro Devices vs. SK Hynix
  • 3 AI Hardware Stocks Linked To Nvidia And US China Trade Talks
  • Jim Cramer sends a blunt message to AMD stock investors
  • Cathie Wood Sold Palantir and AMD, Then Poured $3.35 Million Into Archer Aviation. Is ARK Betting Big on Flying Taxis?
  • Micron (MU) Unveils Breakthrough Memory Product. It Says Much About the Memory Market

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 46.94B 13.6% 18.6% 8.74B 9.03B -294.60M -256.47M
2 52.82B 12.5% 18.6% 9.83B 9.42B 414.88M 314.43M
3 58.83B 11.4% 18.6% 10.95B 9.64B 1.31B 864.52M
4 64.87B 10.3% 18.6% 12.08B 9.68B 2.40B 1.38B
5 70.79B 9.1% 18.6% 13.18B 9.50B 3.68B 1.84B
6 76.46B 8.0% 18.6% 14.24B 9.09B 5.15B 2.24B
7 81.73B 6.9% 18.6% 15.22B 8.44B 6.78B 2.57B
8 86.43B 5.8% 18.6% 16.09B 7.54B 8.55B 2.82B
9 90.43B 4.6% 18.6% 16.84B 6.41B 10.43B 2.99B
10 93.59B 3.5% 18.6% 17.43B 5.07B 12.35B 3.09B

⚠ Extreme gap to market price — large, heavily-covered stocks are rarely mispriced this much; the gap likely embeds disruption, decline, or balance-sheet risk the model underweights. Treat as a flag to investigate, not a verdict.

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-21$559.82 $44.59 -92.0% STRONG SELL
2026-08-24$473.25 $47.04 -90.1% STRONG SELL
2026-07-27$521.95 $143.41 -72.5% SELL
2026-06-26$532.57 $171.75 -67.8% SELL
2026-06-23$519.65 $86.79 -83.3% STRONG SELL