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AON Aon plc

insurance · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-07

STRONG SELL
Intrinsic value$77.41
Price (at call)$323.09
Margin of safety -76.0%
vs market (rating basis) -53.1%

Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.

⚠ LLM error: empty response; using baseline

The story

Value drivers

Return on equity (normalized)15.0%
Book-value growth (Y1)8.0%
Terminal book growth3.0%
Beta0.66
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of equity7.8%

Valuation bridge

PV of excess returns3.89B
PV of terminal excess3.18B
Equity value16.42B
÷ shares → per share$77.41

News

bearish -0.30 · 8 articles

  • Aon (AON) is Paying $17B for USI. Can $395M of Synergies Justify Another Debt-Funded Megadeal?
  • PFG Acquires Beam Benefits to Accelerate Specialty Benefits Growth
  • How Can Healthcare Inflation Fuel Growth for MRSH, UNH & CNC?
  • The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Willis Towers Watson, Arthur J. Gallagher and Aon
  • 3 Insurance Brokerage Stocks Find New Growth Drivers as Rates Fade
  • KKR (KKR) Lands A $17 Billion Insurance Brokerage Exit
  • Aon's $17 Billion USI Deal: A Costly Bet on Middle-Market Growth
  • KKR's $17B USI Sale Unlocks Value: What Does it Mean for Investors?

Projected excess returns on equity

YrBook equityROEExcess returnPV
19.35B 15.0%677.65M 628.88M
210.10B 14.4%672.98M 579.61M
310.85B 13.8%659.83M 527.39M
411.60B 13.3%637.67M 473.00M
512.33B 12.7%606.16M 417.27M
613.05B 12.1%565.14M 361.04M
713.73B 11.5%514.63M 305.11M
814.37B 10.9%454.89M 250.29M
914.96B 10.3%386.39M 197.30M
1015.49B 9.8%309.83M 146.82M

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-07$323.09 $77.41 -76.0% STRONG SELL
2026-08-05$356.65 $90.54 -74.6% STRONG SELL
2026-07-02$343.56 $89.65 -73.9% STRONG SELL
2026-06-23$320.66 $87.75 -72.6% STRONG SELL