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AZO AutoZone

retail · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-21

BUY
Intrinsic value$1,955.14
Price (at call)$2,855.31
Margin of safety -31.5%
vs market (rating basis) +13.2%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)5.2%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin12.5%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital3.71
Beta0.50
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)7.0%
Terminal WACC8.8%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF17.42B
PV of terminal value23.03B
Equity value31.92B
÷ shares → per share$1,955.14

News

bearish -0.30 · 8 articles

  • AutoZone (AZO) Q3 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For
  • Trump-Xi Summit, Costco, Autozone, General Mills, and More to Watch This Week
  • AutoZone (AZO) Could Be 26% Undervalued Following Its 8,000th Store Opening
  • AutoZone (AZO) Stock May Be 21% Undervalued After Earnings Inflection Talk
  • AutoZone (AZO) Stock Fair Value Edges Lower After Analysts Trim Price Targets
  • AutoZone Facing Near-Term Pressure From Recent Oil Price Spike, Oppenheimer Says
  • AutoZone's Fiscal Fourth-Quarter Estimates Cut at Oppenheimer Amid Impact of Higher Oil Prices
  • AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 21.03B 5.2% 17.0% 2.85B 281.74M 2.56B 2.40B
2 22.09B 5.0% 15.9% 2.79B 285.58M 2.51B 2.19B
3 23.16B 4.8% 14.8% 2.72B 288.52M 2.44B 1.99B
4 24.24B 4.7% 13.6% 2.64B 290.49M 2.35B 1.79B
5 25.32B 4.5% 12.5% 2.53B 291.45M 2.24B 1.60B
6 26.40B 4.3% 12.5% 2.64B 291.32M 2.35B 1.56B
7 27.48B 4.1% 12.5% 2.75B 290.07M 2.46B 1.53B
8 28.55B 3.9% 12.5% 2.85B 287.65M 2.57B 1.49B
9 29.60B 3.7% 12.5% 2.96B 284.03M 2.67B 1.46B
10 30.64B 3.5% 12.5% 3.06B 279.17M 2.78B 1.42B

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-21$2,855.31 $1,955.14 -31.5% BUY
2026-08-10$3,127.29 $2,088.81 -33.2% HOLD
2026-06-26$3,059.04 $2,775.98 -9.3% STRONG BUY
2026-06-23$2,949.06 $2,426.94 -17.7% STRONG BUY