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BALL Ball Corporation

materials · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-04

BUY
Intrinsic value$35.64
Price (at call)$62.93
Margin of safety -43.4%
vs market (rating basis) +11.2%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)-0.5%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin10.4%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital1.15
Beta0.96
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)8.2%
Terminal WACC8.3%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF6.94B
PV of terminal value8.29B
Equity value9.43B
÷ shares → per share$35.64

News

neutral -0.10 · 8 articles

  • Ball (BALL) Down 0.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
  • 2 Mid-Cap Stocks with Exciting Potential and 1 We Question
  • 2 Growth Stocks to Stash and 1 Facing Headwinds
  • 1 Industrials Stock with Impressive Fundamentals and 2 We Question
  • 5 Must-Read Analyst Questions From Ball’s Q2 Earnings Call
  • Ball Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?
  • 2 S&P 500 Stocks with Exciting Potential and 1 We Question
  • Ball (BALL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 14.25B -0.5% 10.4% 1.16B 0 1.16B 1.08B
2 14.24B -0.1% 10.4% 1.16B 0 1.16B 993.86M
3 14.29B 0.4% 10.4% 1.17B 45.29M 1.12B 886.17M
4 14.41B 0.8% 10.4% 1.18B 100.98M 1.08B 785.34M
5 14.59B 1.3% 10.4% 1.19B 157.77M 1.03B 697.56M
6 14.84B 1.7% 10.4% 1.21B 216.44M 996.05M 620.84M
7 15.16B 2.2% 10.4% 1.24B 277.78M 960.86M 553.53M
8 15.55B 2.6% 10.4% 1.27B 342.66M 928.24M 494.23M
9 16.03B 3.1% 10.4% 1.31B 412.01M 897.69M 441.75M
10 16.59B 3.5% 10.4% 1.36B 486.86M 868.68M 395.09M

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-04$62.93 $35.64 -43.4% BUY
2026-08-03$64.90 $38.15 -41.2% BUY
2026-06-29$61.79 $40.70 -34.1% BUY
2026-06-23$60.51 $39.02 -35.5% BUY