CF CF Industries
Intrinsic value$112.72
Price (at call)$133.35
Margin of safety
-15.5%
vs market (rating basis)
+27.2%
Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.
⚠ LLM error: empty response; using baseline
The story
Value drivers
| Revenue growth (Y1) | -8.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.5% |
| Forecast horizon | 10y |
| Target operating margin | 27.1% |
| Years to target margin | 5 |
| Sales-to-capital | 0.96 |
| Beta | 0.50 |
| Failure probability | 0.0% |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 6.8% |
| Terminal WACC | 8.7% |
Valuation bridge
| PV of explicit FCFF | 10.76B |
| PV of terminal value | 10.47B |
| Equity value | 17.06B |
| ÷ shares → per share | $112.72 |
News
bullish +0.60 · 8 articles
- CF (CF) Up 18.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
- Stock Market Screens Like This One Capture Shifts In Market Leadership
- Top Analyst Reports for Amazon, AbbVie & Alibaba
- CF Industries Stock Touches New Record on Fertilizer Supply Crunch
- CF Shares Up 15% in 3 Months: Here's What's Driving the Upside
- CF Industries & Partners Break Ground on Low-Carbon Ammonia Plant
- Fertilizer Giants Ready New Plants to Boost U.S. Supplies
- The next big oil trade may have nothing to do with oil stocks
Projected free cash flow to the firm
| Yr | Revenue | Growth | Margin | NOPAT | Reinvest | FCFF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7.12B | -8.0% | 39.2% | 2.24B | 0 | 2.24B | 2.10B |
| 2 | 6.64B | -6.7% | 36.2% | 1.93B | 0 | 1.93B | 1.69B |
| 3 | 6.28B | -5.4% | 33.1% | 1.67B | 0 | 1.67B | 1.37B |
| 4 | 6.02B | -4.2% | 30.1% | 1.46B | 0 | 1.46B | 1.12B |
| 5 | 5.84B | -2.9% | 27.1% | 1.27B | 0 | 1.27B | 915.82M |
| 6 | 5.75B | -1.6% | 27.1% | 1.25B | 0 | 1.25B | 843.82M |
| 7 | 5.73B | -0.3% | 27.1% | 1.25B | 0 | 1.25B | 787.58M |
| 8 | 5.78B | 0.9% | 27.1% | 1.26B | 56.32M | 1.20B | 711.19M |
| 9 | 5.91B | 2.2% | 27.1% | 1.29B | 133.77M | 1.15B | 638.60M |
| 10 | 6.12B | 3.5% | 27.1% | 1.33B | 215.37M | 1.12B | 579.06M |