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CHD Church & Dwight

consumer_staples · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-17

HOLD
Intrinsic value$47.55
Price (at call)$95.51
Margin of safety -50.2%
vs market (rating basis) -7.1%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)4.9%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin16.8%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital1.00
Beta0.50
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)7.1%
Terminal WACC9.1%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF4.83B
PV of terminal value8.25B
Equity value11.28B
÷ shares → per share$47.55

News

neutral -0.10 · 8 articles

  • Newell's Stock Surges 51% in 6 Months: Is It Time to Buy or Wait?
  • Spotting Winners: Church & Dwight (NYSE:CHD) And Household Products Stocks In Q2
  • Is Church & Dwight Stock Outperforming the Dow?
  • Can Procter & Gamble's Fabric & Home Care Segment Regain Momentum?
  • Who Buys Colgate’s Cast-Off Brands? Why the Obvious Answers Are Unlikely.
  • Are Options Traders Betting on a Big Move in Church & Dwight Stock?
  • Should Investors Buy KVUE as Margin Gains Offset Slow Sales Growth?
  • Procter & Gamble Fabric & Home Care Trends Mixed: Is Growth Ahead?

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 6.51B 4.9% 16.8% 842.60M 303.47M 539.13M 503.59M
2 6.82B 4.7% 16.8% 882.49M 308.26M 574.24M 501.03M
3 7.13B 4.6% 16.8% 922.92M 312.33M 610.59M 497.63M
4 7.44B 4.4% 16.8% 963.76M 315.63M 648.13M 493.41M
5 7.76B 4.3% 16.8% 1.00B 318.11M 686.82M 488.40M
6 8.08B 4.1% 16.8% 1.05B 319.71M 726.60M 482.62M
7 8.40B 4.0% 16.8% 1.09B 320.40M 767.37M 476.11M
8 8.72B 3.8% 16.8% 1.13B 320.12M 809.08M 468.90M
9 9.04B 3.7% 16.8% 1.17B 318.85M 851.61M 461.02M
10 9.36B 3.5% 16.8% 1.21B 316.55M 894.89M 452.51M

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-17$95.51 $47.55 -50.2% HOLD
2026-08-10$103.24 $51.07 -50.5% HOLD
2026-06-30$97.90 $49.73 -49.2% HOLD
2026-06-23$96.48 $50.46 -47.7% HOLD