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CRM Salesforce

software · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-09

STRONG BUY
Intrinsic value$172.82
Price (at call)$249.12
Margin of safety -30.6%
vs market (rating basis) +43.6%

Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)9.8%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin28.8%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital0.60
Beta1.20
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)9.9%
Terminal WACC9.0%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF47.09B
PV of terminal value102.25B
Equity value142.23B
÷ shares → per share$172.82

News

bearish -0.30 · 8 articles

  • Snowflake CEO explains how software companies can survive in the AI era
  • SpaceX, Nvidia Lead Schwab Buys As Software Rally Spurs Profit-Taking – Trading Gauge Posts First Dip Since April
  • S&P 500 falls as AI worries hit software makers
  • Can Selling Puts On Adobe Stock Yield Nearly 10%?
  • ServiceNow Jumps 25% in 3 Months: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
  • Adobe Before Q3 Earnings: Should You Hold or Fold the ADBE Stock?
  • Why ServiceNow Stock Popped 33% Last Month
  • This Could Be the AI Stock That Keeps Surprising Wall Street

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 48.25B 9.8% 28.8% 10.90B 7.23B 3.67B 3.34B
2 52.65B 9.1% 28.8% 11.89B 7.37B 4.52B 3.75B
3 57.08B 8.4% 28.8% 12.89B 7.42B 5.47B 4.12B
4 61.49B 7.7% 28.8% 13.88B 7.37B 6.51B 4.47B
5 65.80B 7.0% 28.8% 14.86B 7.22B 7.64B 4.77B
6 69.95B 6.3% 28.8% 15.79B 6.95B 8.84B 5.03B
7 73.87B 5.6% 28.8% 16.68B 6.57B 10.11B 5.23B
8 77.49B 4.9% 28.8% 17.50B 6.07B 11.43B 5.38B
9 80.75B 4.2% 28.8% 18.23B 5.45B 12.78B 5.48B
10 83.58B 3.5% 28.8% 18.87B 4.73B 14.14B 5.52B

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-09$249.12 $172.82 -30.6% STRONG BUY
2026-08-06$192.98 $143.40 -25.7% STRONG BUY
2026-07-01$156.66 $159.19 +1.6% STRONG BUY
2026-06-23$153.42 $144.88 -5.6% STRONG BUY