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ERIE Erie Indemnity

insurance · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-14

SELL
Intrinsic value$80.84
Price (at call)$245.03
Margin of safety -67.0%
vs market (rating basis) -44.6%

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The story

Value drivers

Return on equity (normalized)15.0%
Book-value growth (Y1)8.0%
Terminal book growth3.0%
Beta0.50
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of equity7.2%

Valuation bridge

PV of excess returns1.03B
PV of terminal excess918.01M
Equity value4.23B
÷ shares → per share$80.84

News

score · 8 articles

  • 4 Financial Stocks That Kept Raising Dividends Through 2 Historic Crashes
  • Is Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Fairly Valued On Its Bloomberg 500 Removal?
  • Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Stock May Be 2% Undervalued Despite Rich Earnings Valuation
  • Do Wall Street Analysts Like Erie Indemnity Stock?
  • Insurance ETFs Top Defensive Sector Chart In July As Investors Look To Pivot Slightly From Chips And AI
  • Erie Indemnity Co (ERIE) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Underwriting Turnaround and ...
  • Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
  • Earnings Preview: What to Expect From Erie Indemnity’s Report

Projected excess returns on equity

YrBook equityROEExcess returnPV
12.28B 15.0%177.53M 165.57M
22.47B 14.4%175.91M 153.00M
32.65B 13.7%172.00M 139.53M
42.83B 13.1%165.68M 125.34M
53.01B 12.4%156.85M 110.66M
63.19B 11.8%145.47M 95.72M
73.35B 11.1%131.56M 80.73M
83.51B 10.5%115.19M 65.92M
93.65B 9.9%96.49M 51.50M
103.78B 9.2%75.65M 37.66M

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-14$245.03 $80.84 -67.0% SELL
2026-08-12$256.64 $83.33 -67.5% SELL
2026-07-09$251.36 $84.40 -66.4% STRONG SELL
2026-06-23$221.12 $85.31 -61.4% STRONG SELL