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FANG Diamondback Energy

energy · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-15

STRONG SELL
Intrinsic value$0.00
Price (at call)$205.72
Margin of safety -100.0%
vs market (rating basis) -79.3%

Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.

⚠ LLM error: empty response; using baseline

The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)16.0%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin12.6%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital0.50
Beta0.50
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)7.5%
Terminal WACC9.3%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF-14.55B
PV of terminal value24.16B
Equity value0
÷ shares → per share$0.00

News

bullish +0.40 · 8 articles

  • Zacks Industry Outlook W&T Offshore, APA and Diamondback
  • Is Diamondback Energy Stock Outperforming the Dow?
  • Record Diesel Prices Make Fed’s Rate Decision for It
  • Diamondback Energy (FANG) Rises As Market Takes a Dip: Key Facts
  • WTI Crude Not Too Far From $100: Are Permian Stocks a Smart Watch Now?
  • 2 Value Stocks with Impressive Fundamentals and 1 Facing Challenges
  • Iran Just Raised the Stakes in the Gulf—These 5 Stocks Stand to Benefit
  • U.S. Energy Stocks Rise Premarket as Brent Approaches $100

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 19.70B 16.0% 12.6% 2.05B 5.43B -3.39B -3.15B
2 22.57B 14.6% 12.6% 2.34B 5.75B -3.41B -2.95B
3 25.56B 13.2% 12.6% 2.65B 5.97B -3.31B -2.67B
4 28.58B 11.8% 12.6% 2.97B 6.05B -3.08B -2.31B
5 31.57B 10.4% 12.6% 3.28B 5.97B -2.69B -1.88B
6 34.42B 9.1% 12.6% 3.57B 5.72B -2.14B -1.39B
7 37.06B 7.7% 12.6% 3.85B 5.28B -1.43B -863.25M
8 39.39B 6.3% 12.6% 4.09B 4.65B -562.50M -316.31M
9 41.31B 4.9% 12.6% 4.29B 3.85B 438.97M 229.71M
10 42.76B 3.5% 12.6% 4.44B 2.89B 1.55B 753.74M

⚠ intrinsic value floored at 0 — the drivers imply the equity claim is worth less than the debt ahead of it · Extreme gap to market price — large, heavily-covered stocks are rarely mispriced this much; the gap likely embeds disruption, decline, or balance-sheet risk the model underweights. Treat as a flag to investigate, not a verdict.

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-15$205.72 $0.00 -100.0% STRONG SELL
2026-08-12$201.71 $0.00 -100.0% STRONG SELL
2026-07-08$180.56 $12.23 -93.2% STRONG SELL
2026-06-23$187.91 $7.77 -95.9% STRONG SELL