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FCX Freeport-McMoRan

materials · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-14

SELL
Intrinsic value$18.43
Price (at call)$71.07
Margin of safety -74.1%
vs market (rating basis) -24.4%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)4.4%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin19.7%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital0.91
Beta1.40
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)10.7%
Terminal WACC9.0%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF18.48B
PV of terminal value25.40B
Equity value26.46B
÷ shares → per share$18.43

News

score · 8 articles

  • Why Did Freeport-McMoRan Stock Drop On Doubts Over A Tariff It Would Gain From?
  • FCX's Shares Up 20% in 6 Months: What Should Investors Do Now?
  • Freeport-McMoRan Eyes Grasberg Ramp-Up, U.S. Copper Growth From Leaching
  • Why Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Dipped More Than Broader Market Today
  • Copper Stocks Tumble as Tariff Doubt Reverses Record Rally: Freeport-McMoRan Sinks 8%, Teck Resources and Southern Copper Drop 7%
  • Copper Prices Looked Unstoppable. Why They’re Suddenly Tumbling.
  • Freeport-McMoRan Shares Fall More Than 5% as Copper Retreats From Record High
  • U.S.-Listed Copper Mining Stocks Fall as Copper Retreats From Record High

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 27.00B 4.4% 25.8% 4.54B 1.24B 3.30B 2.98B
2 28.16B 4.3% 24.3% 4.46B 1.27B 3.19B 2.60B
3 29.34B 4.2% 22.8% 4.35B 1.29B 3.06B 2.26B
4 30.55B 4.1% 21.2% 4.22B 1.31B 2.91B 1.94B
5 31.77B 4.0% 19.7% 4.07B 1.33B 2.74B 1.65B
6 33.00B 3.9% 19.7% 4.23B 1.35B 2.88B 1.57B
7 34.26B 3.8% 19.7% 4.39B 1.37B 3.02B 1.49B
8 35.52B 3.7% 19.7% 4.56B 1.38B 3.17B 1.41B
9 36.80B 3.6% 19.7% 4.72B 1.40B 3.32B 1.33B
10 38.09B 3.5% 19.7% 4.88B 1.41B 3.48B 1.26B

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-14$71.07 $18.43 -74.1% SELL
2026-08-12$68.87 $20.78 -69.8% SELL
2026-07-08$59.33 $28.39 -52.2% HOLD
2026-06-23$64.40 $28.42 -55.9% HOLD