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HD Home Depot (The)

retail · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-08-26

HOLD
Intrinsic value$149.10
Price (at call)$337.88
Margin of safety -55.9%
vs market (rating basis) -10.5%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)3.0%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin9.8%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital2.43
Beta0.96
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)8.4%
Terminal WACC8.6%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF84.96B
PV of terminal value118.18B
Equity value148.76B
÷ shares → per share$149.10

News

neutral +0.10 · 8 articles

  • If You'd Invested $1,000 in Home Depot 15 Years Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have Today
  • The Questions That Defined WMT's Earnings Call
  • Home Depot (HD) Beat Q2 Estimates. What Did the $685M Tariff Refund Change?
  • 1 Reason Home Depot's 17-Year Dividend Streak Makes It a Buy This Week
  • Home Depot (HD) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript
  • The Premium On WMT Stock Vs What Its Peers Deliver
  • Arctos Adds Another NFL Team With $10.6 Billion Falcons Deal
  • President Trump’s Portfolio Added 2 Stocks Bill Gates and Bill Ackman Also Own

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 171.59B 3.0% 12.0% 15.62B 2.06B 13.56B 12.51B
2 176.83B 3.1% 11.4% 15.35B 2.16B 13.20B 11.23B
3 182.33B 3.1% 10.9% 15.07B 2.26B 12.80B 10.05B
4 188.11B 3.2% 10.3% 14.76B 2.38B 12.38B 8.96B
5 194.17B 3.2% 9.8% 14.42B 2.50B 11.92B 7.96B
6 200.53B 3.3% 9.8% 14.89B 2.62B 12.27B 7.56B
7 207.22B 3.3% 9.8% 15.38B 2.75B 12.63B 7.18B
8 214.24B 3.4% 9.8% 15.91B 2.89B 13.02B 6.83B
9 221.62B 3.4% 9.8% 16.45B 3.04B 13.42B 6.49B
10 229.38B 3.5% 9.8% 17.03B 3.19B 13.84B 6.18B

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-08-26$337.88 $149.10 -55.9% HOLD
2026-07-14$337.11 $191.19 -43.3% HOLD
2026-06-23$324.45 $204.60 -36.9% BUY