▟ Vinebot intrinsic value, daily

← back

HOOD Robinhood Markets

capital_markets · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-21

STRONG SELL
Intrinsic value$11.27
Price (at call)$119.82
Margin of safety -90.6%
vs market (rating basis) -64.6%

Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.

⚠ LLM error: unbalanced JSON in response: '{\n "story": "Robinhood is a retail brokerage/capital-markets firm that swung from -71% operating margins to 47% in three years on the crypto-options cycle, producing a peak 22.7% trailing ROE on a th'; using baseline

The story

Value drivers

Return on equity (normalized)15.0%
Book-value growth (Y1)8.0%
Terminal book growth3.0%
Beta2.20
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of equity14.0%

Valuation bridge

PV of excess returns605.45M
PV of terminal excess383.31M
Equity value10.13B
÷ shares → per share$11.27

News

bullish +0.30 · 8 articles

  • These Recent Moves Are Brilliant. Here's Why Robinhood Is the Most Important Player in Crypto Right Now.
  • Coinbase Stock Jumped 12% Last Friday. Bitcoin’s Breakout Wasn’t the Only Reason.
  • Dow Jones Futures Rise; Can The Market Take Flight? Robinhood, Sandisk, AMD, Moderna Surge Into Buy Areas
  • Robinhood CEO Says Crypto Event-Contracts Will Overtake Sports Markets
  • Higher Rates Keep Robinhood Stock And Cash Sweep Platforms In Focus
  • Robinhood CEO Says Civil Liability May Not Be Enough To Contain Biggest AI Risks
  • Robinhood Soars, SpaceX Orbits Entry: Five Stocks Near Buy Points
  • Not Just Banks: 3 Trading Stocks to Watch After the Fed Rate Hike

Projected excess returns on equity

YrBook equityROEExcess returnPV
19.14B 15.0%91.58M 80.34M
29.87B 15.0%98.91M 76.11M
310.61B 15.0%106.27M 71.73M
411.34B 15.0%113.59M 67.26M
512.05B 15.0%120.79M 62.74M
612.75B 15.0%127.77M 58.21M
713.42B 15.0%134.44M 53.73M
814.04B 15.0%140.71M 49.34M
914.62B 15.0%146.50M 45.06M
1015.14B 15.0%151.71M 40.93M

⚠ Extreme gap to market price — large, well-covered names are rarely mispriced this much; likely embeds risk the model underweights. A flag, not a verdict.

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-21$119.82 $11.27 -90.6% STRONG SELL
2026-08-26$112.09 $11.71 -89.6% STRONG SELL
2026-07-31$86.60 $13.22 -84.7% STRONG SELL
2026-07-06$112.73 $12.93 -88.5% STRONG SELL
2026-06-23$103.25 $10.48 -89.8% STRONG SELL