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ITW Illinois Tool Works

industrial · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-08-13

HOLD
Intrinsic value$120.30
Price (at call)$292.51
Margin of safety -58.9%
vs market (rating basis) -15.7%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)3.0%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin20.9%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital1.35
Beta1.00
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)8.8%
Terminal WACC8.8%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF18.61B
PV of terminal value23.77B
Equity value34.26B
÷ shares → per share$120.30

News

bullish +0.30 · 8 articles

  • 4 Industrial Dividend Growers That Fly Under the Radar and Look Like Buys in August
  • Why nVent Electric Crushed Estimates Again (Hint: It's Not Just Due to AI Data Centers)
  • 1 Surging Stock with Competitive Advantages and 2 Facing Headwinds
  • Company News for July 29, 2026
  • Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Is Up 8.5% After Raising 2026 Guidance And Boosting Share Buybacks
  • Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Stock Trades Up, Here Is Why
  • Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Operating Income and ...
  • Illinois Tool Works Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 16.96B 3.0% 25.7% 3.37B 365.82M 3.00B 2.76B
2 17.48B 3.1% 24.5% 3.31B 383.77M 2.92B 2.47B
3 18.03B 3.1% 23.3% 3.25B 402.69M 2.84B 2.21B
4 18.60B 3.2% 22.1% 3.18B 422.63M 2.76B 1.97B
5 19.20B 3.2% 20.9% 3.11B 443.67M 2.66B 1.75B
6 19.82B 3.3% 20.9% 3.21B 465.86M 2.74B 1.65B
7 20.49B 3.3% 20.9% 3.31B 489.28M 2.82B 1.57B
8 21.18B 3.4% 20.9% 3.43B 514.02M 2.91B 1.49B
9 21.91B 3.4% 20.9% 3.54B 540.15M 3.00B 1.41B
10 22.68B 3.5% 20.9% 3.67B 567.77M 3.10B 1.34B

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-08-13$292.51 $120.30 -58.9% HOLD
2026-06-23$261.64 $145.58 -44.4% HOLD