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LII Lennox International

industrial · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-08-20

STRONG BUY
Intrinsic value$329.87
Price (at call)$419.34
Margin of safety -21.3%
vs market (rating basis) +46.7%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)3.3%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin19.8%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital2.14
Beta1.20
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)9.6%
Terminal WACC8.8%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF5.64B
PV of terminal value7.05B
Equity value11.40B
÷ shares → per share$329.87

News

bearish -0.60 · 8 articles

  • The Anti-AI ETF Is Here, and Its Biggest Holdings Are Engines, Trucks and Air Conditioners
  • What Are Wall Street Analysts' Target Price for Lennox Stock?
  • 2 Reasons to Like LII (and 1 Not So Much)
  • 2 Industrials Stocks to Research Further and 1 We Avoid
  • Lennox (LII) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
  • MOD Q1 Earnings Top Estimates on Data Center Growth, Sales Miss
  • Lennox International (LII) Is Down 22.4% After Cutting 2026 EPS Guidance Amid Residential Weakness – Has The Bull Case Changed?
  • LII Q2 Deep Dive: Residential Weakness and Guidance Cut Overshadow Commercial Gains

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 5.48B 3.3% 19.8% 877.91M 80.97M 796.94M 726.97M
2 5.66B 3.3% 19.8% 906.78M 84.29M 822.48M 684.40M
3 5.84B 3.3% 19.8% 936.83M 87.76M 849.07M 644.48M
4 6.04B 3.3% 19.8% 968.13M 91.40M 876.73M 607.06M
5 6.24B 3.4% 19.8% 1.00B 95.20M 905.53M 571.95M
6 6.45B 3.4% 19.8% 1.03B 99.18M 935.52M 539.01M
7 6.67B 3.4% 19.8% 1.07B 103.35M 966.74M 508.09M
8 6.90B 3.4% 19.8% 1.11B 107.71M 999.27M 479.07M
9 7.14B 3.5% 19.8% 1.15B 112.28M 1.03B 451.83M
10 7.39B 3.5% 19.8% 1.19B 117.07M 1.07B 426.24M

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-08-20$419.34 $329.87 -21.3% STRONG BUY
2026-06-23$523.59 $324.59 -38.0% BUY