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LMT Lockheed Martin

aerospace · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-18

STRONG BUY
Intrinsic value$501.64
Price (at call)$538.09
Margin of safety -6.8%
vs market (rating basis) +44.1%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)4.4%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin11.1%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital2.71
Beta0.50
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)6.9%
Terminal WACC8.9%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF53.12B
PV of terminal value80.23B
Equity value115.77B
÷ shares → per share$501.64

News

bullish +0.30 · 8 articles

  • How General Motors Could Win Big in the US Defense Missile Push
  • US to Sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia in $24.3 Billion Deal
  • U.S. approves possible $24.3 billion F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia
  • US Department Of State Signs $24.3B Deal With Saudi Arabia To Sell F-35 Fighter Jets, But LMT Stock Slips
  • GM Finds a New Growth Engine in Missiles
  • Patriot Missile Sprint Is Running Ahead of Plan, CEO Says
  • GM to Produce Patriot Missile Parts as U.S. Faces Critical Arms Shortage
  • GM delivers first components for US interceptor missiles

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 80.39B 4.4% 11.1% 7.55B 1.25B 6.30B 5.89B
2 83.84B 4.3% 11.1% 7.87B 1.27B 6.60B 5.77B
3 87.35B 4.2% 11.1% 8.20B 1.30B 6.90B 5.64B
4 90.92B 4.1% 11.1% 8.53B 1.32B 7.21B 5.52B
5 94.55B 4.0% 11.1% 8.87B 1.34B 7.53B 5.39B
6 98.23B 3.9% 11.1% 9.22B 1.36B 7.86B 5.25B
7 101.95B 3.8% 11.1% 9.57B 1.38B 8.19B 5.12B
8 105.72B 3.7% 11.1% 9.92B 1.39B 8.53B 4.99B
9 109.53B 3.6% 11.1% 10.28B 1.40B 8.88B 4.85B
10 113.36B 3.5% 11.1% 10.64B 1.41B 9.22B 4.71B

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-18$538.09 $501.64 -6.8% STRONG BUY
2026-09-01$561.23 $519.44 -7.4% STRONG BUY
2026-08-13$606.72 $524.52 -13.5% STRONG BUY
2026-07-27$582.60 $392.20 -32.7% BUY
2026-07-07$538.00 $375.38 -30.2% BUY
2026-06-23$503.67 $385.94 -23.4% STRONG BUY