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LOW Lowe's

retail · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-08-31

HOLD
Intrinsic value$85.72
Price (at call)$208.05
Margin of safety -58.8%
vs market (rating basis) -15.5%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)-3.8%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin9.3%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital2.95
Beta0.85
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)7.9%
Terminal WACC8.4%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF40.41B
PV of terminal value46.62B
Equity value48.09B
÷ shares → per share$85.72

News

bearish -0.30 · 8 articles

  • MarketBeat Week in Review – 08/24 - 08/28
  • Lowe's Companies (LOW) Could Be 19% Undervalued On Lower 2026 Guidance
  • The Cash Machine The Market Put On Sale: LOW
  • Prediction: Home Depot’s Turnaround Could Be Bigger Than Investors Expect
  • Target or Lowe’s: Whose Dividend Streak Cracks First?
  • The American lawn has a gen z problem: ScottsMiracle-Gro CEO
  • Lowe’s (LOW) Leans On Pro And Online As DIY Cools
  • Home Depot vs. Lowe’s: One Housing Recovery Play Stands Out

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 85.03B -3.8% 11.2% 7.24B 0 7.24B 6.72B
2 82.46B -3.0% 10.7% 6.73B 0 6.73B 5.79B
3 80.63B -2.2% 10.3% 6.30B 0 6.30B 5.02B
4 79.51B -1.4% 9.8% 5.93B 0 5.93B 4.38B
5 79.04B -0.6% 9.3% 5.61B 0 5.61B 3.85B
6 79.23B 0.2% 9.3% 5.63B 63.07M 5.56B 3.53B
7 80.06B 1.1% 9.3% 5.68B 282.62M 5.40B 3.18B
8 81.56B 1.9% 9.3% 5.79B 507.31M 5.28B 2.89B
9 83.75B 2.7% 9.3% 5.95B 742.63M 5.20B 2.64B
10 86.68B 3.5% 9.3% 6.15B 994.47M 5.16B 2.42B

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-08-31$208.05 $85.72 -58.8% HOLD
2026-07-17$216.16 $117.72 -45.5% HOLD
2026-06-23$213.54 $112.78 -47.2% HOLD