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MAR Marriott International

retail · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-02

SELL
Intrinsic value$102.29
Price (at call)$334.55
Margin of safety -69.4%
vs market (rating basis) -22.4%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)8.0%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin11.5%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital2.16
Beta1.12
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)9.2%
Terminal WACC8.8%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF16.61B
PV of terminal value25.91B
Equity value26.67B
÷ shares → per share$102.29

News

score · 8 articles

  • Hoi Hup acquires Four Points by Sheraton Sydney in Australia
  • Apple Hospitality REIT Inc's Dividend Analysis
  • Groom Guy Brings Black-Owned Luxury Grooming To Marriott’s Autograph Collection
  • Winners And Losers Of Q2: Marriott (NASDAQ:MAR) Vs The Rest Of The Consumer Discretionary - Travel and Vacation Providers Stocks
  • Summer Travel Season May Be Ending, but Marriott’s Stock Is Worth Checking In For
  • Dual-branded Marriott hotel in San Antonio sells
  • Marriott (MAR) Launches Luxury Collection Expeditions In Japan, Italy And Greece
  • Groom Guy, A Black-Owned Luxury Men’s Grooming And Wellness Brand, Joins Marriott’s Autograph Collection

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 29.06B 8.0% 15.2% 3.38B 997.72M 2.38B 2.18B
2 31.25B 7.5% 14.3% 3.42B 1.01B 2.41B 2.02B
3 33.44B 7.0% 13.4% 3.42B 1.01B 2.41B 1.85B
4 35.62B 6.5% 12.4% 3.40B 1.01B 2.39B 1.68B
5 37.76B 6.0% 11.5% 3.34B 989.97M 2.35B 1.51B
6 39.85B 5.5% 11.5% 3.52B 961.76M 2.56B 1.51B
7 41.84B 5.0% 11.5% 3.70B 922.19M 2.78B 1.50B
8 43.73B 4.5% 11.5% 3.87B 871.17M 3.00B 1.48B
9 45.48B 4.0% 11.5% 4.02B 808.83M 3.21B 1.45B
10 47.07B 3.5% 11.5% 4.16B 735.55M 3.43B 1.42B

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-02$334.55 $102.29 -69.4% SELL
2026-07-22$367.81 $164.13 -55.4% HOLD
2026-07-21$366.93 $105.13 -71.3% N/A
2026-06-23$386.83 $170.98 -55.8% HOLD