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MDT Medtronic

healthcare · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-17

STRONG SELL
Intrinsic value$19.78
Price (at call)$92.60
Margin of safety -78.6%
vs market (rating basis) -45.1%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)5.2%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin14.8%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital0.50
Beta0.57
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)7.3%
Terminal WACC8.9%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF13.24B
PV of terminal value38.62B
Equity value25.30B
÷ shares → per share$19.78

News

bullish +0.30 · 8 articles

  • Should You Judge JNJ Stock Without STELARA?
  • Recor Medical ex-CEO Lara Barghout joins Medtronic
  • How Medtronic’s (MDT) AI Maternal Health Push With Sonus Is Reframing Its Investment Story
  • Medtronic Sees AI, Ablation and Targeted M&A Fueling Growth
  • Has BSX Stock Finally Hit Bottom?
  • Boston Scientific Leans on Acquisitions to Drive Long-Term Growth
  • Get Paid To Wait For ISRG Stock To Go On Sale
  • Medtronic begins final steps to separate MiniMed

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 39.50B 5.2% 18.6% 5.78B 3.91B 1.87B 1.74B
2 41.48B 5.0% 17.6% 5.76B 3.96B 1.80B 1.56B
3 43.48B 4.8% 16.7% 5.71B 4.01B 1.71B 1.38B
4 45.50B 4.6% 15.7% 5.64B 4.03B 1.60B 1.21B
5 47.52B 4.4% 14.8% 5.53B 4.05B 1.48B 1.04B
6 49.55B 4.3% 14.8% 5.76B 4.05B 1.72B 1.12B
7 51.56B 4.1% 14.8% 6.00B 4.03B 1.97B 1.20B
8 53.56B 3.9% 14.8% 6.23B 4.00B 2.23B 1.27B
9 55.54B 3.7% 14.8% 6.46B 3.95B 2.51B 1.33B
10 57.48B 3.5% 14.8% 6.69B 3.89B 2.80B 1.38B

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-17$92.60 $19.78 -78.6% STRONG SELL
2026-07-29$86.88 $34.68 -60.1% HOLD
2026-06-23$80.63 $39.69 -50.8% HOLD