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MKC McCormick & Company

consumer_staples · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-08-31

HOLD
Intrinsic value$32.36
Price (at call)$55.33
Margin of safety -41.5%
vs market (rating basis) +9.8%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)3.0%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin15.4%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital0.76
Beta0.63
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)7.2%
Terminal WACC8.5%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF4.78B
PV of terminal value7.85B
Equity value8.70B
÷ shares → per share$32.36

News

neutral +0.10 · 8 articles

  • Unilever, McCormick to put Colman’s up for sale
  • Update: Market Chatter: Unilever Puts Colman's Mustard Brand Up for Sale Amid McCormick Deal
  • McCormick Flavor Solutions Volume Beats Views: Can Growth Continue?
  • McCormick & Company Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?
  • Beat the Market the Zacks Way: Bank of America, Marex, Mettler-Toledo International in Focus
  • Is McCormick’s (MKC) Black Currant Menu Push a Subtle Bet on Brand-Led Growth?
  • CFOs On the Move: Week ending Aug. 7
  • Baker McKenzie leads consumer M&A law firms in H1 – data

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 7.61B 3.0% 15.4% 917.37M 291.98M 625.38M 583.54M
2 7.84B 3.1% 15.4% 945.40M 306.31M 639.08M 556.42M
3 8.08B 3.1% 15.4% 974.81M 321.41M 653.40M 530.82M
4 8.34B 3.2% 15.4% 1.01B 337.33M 668.35M 506.64M
5 8.61B 3.2% 15.4% 1.04B 354.12M 683.97M 483.78M
6 8.89B 3.3% 15.4% 1.07B 371.83M 700.28M 462.18M
7 9.19B 3.3% 15.4% 1.11B 390.53M 717.32M 441.75M
8 9.50B 3.4% 15.4% 1.15B 410.27M 735.12M 422.42M
9 9.83B 3.4% 15.4% 1.18B 431.13M 753.72M 404.13M
10 10.17B 3.5% 15.4% 1.23B 453.17M 773.14M 386.81M

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-08-31$55.33 $32.36 -41.5% HOLD
2026-07-22$52.35 $36.67 -29.9% BUY
2026-07-21$52.24 $33.76 -35.4% N/A
2026-06-23$47.38 $34.55 -27.1% BUY