MPC Marathon Petroleum
Intrinsic value$354.65
Price (at call)$424.89
Margin of safety
-16.5%
vs market (rating basis)
+30.0%
Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.
⚠ LLM error: empty response; using baseline
The story
Value drivers
| Revenue growth (Y1) | -8.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.5% |
| Forecast horizon | 10y |
| Target operating margin | 9.3% |
| Years to target margin | 5 |
| Sales-to-capital | 3.06 |
| Beta | 0.53 |
| Failure probability | 0.0% |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.0% |
| Terminal WACC | 8.7% |
Valuation bridge
| PV of explicit FCFF | 65.90B |
| PV of terminal value | 73.62B |
| Equity value | 103.54B |
| ÷ shares → per share | $354.65 |
News
bullish +0.60 · 8 articles
- 3 U.S. Refining Stocks With Diesel And Jet Fuel Margin Upside
- Morgan Stanley Sees Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Breaking into New Highs
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Could Smash its All-Time High, UBS Says
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Is Up 7.3% After Analyst Upgrades And Earnings Beat - Has The Bull Case Changed?
- Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) Pivotal Role in the Evolving LNG Supply Chain
- Here's How Much You'd Have If You Invested $1000 in Marathon Petroleum a Decade Ago
- Why Is the BoE Holding Rates While the US Fed Hikes?
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Exceeds Market Returns: Some Facts to Consider
Projected free cash flow to the firm
| Yr | Revenue | Growth | Margin | NOPAT | Reinvest | FCFF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 141.29B | -8.0% | 9.3% | 11.02B | 0 | 11.02B | 10.30B |
| 2 | 131.79B | -6.7% | 9.3% | 10.28B | 0 | 10.28B | 8.98B |
| 3 | 124.62B | -5.4% | 9.3% | 9.72B | 0 | 9.72B | 7.93B |
| 4 | 119.43B | -4.2% | 9.3% | 9.32B | 0 | 9.32B | 7.11B |
| 5 | 115.98B | -2.9% | 9.3% | 9.05B | 0 | 9.05B | 6.45B |
| 6 | 114.11B | -1.6% | 9.3% | 8.90B | 0 | 8.90B | 5.93B |
| 7 | 113.73B | -0.3% | 9.3% | 8.87B | 0 | 8.87B | 5.52B |
| 8 | 114.80B | 0.9% | 9.3% | 8.95B | 351.02M | 8.60B | 5.01B |
| 9 | 117.35B | 2.2% | 9.3% | 9.15B | 833.72M | 8.32B | 4.53B |
| 10 | 121.46B | 3.5% | 9.3% | 9.47B | 1.34B | 8.13B | 4.13B |