MRNA Moderna
Intrinsic value$0.00
Price (at call)$143.77
Margin of safety
-100.0%
vs market (rating basis)
-79.2%
Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.
⚠ LLM error: empty response; using baseline
The story
Value drivers
| Revenue growth (Y1) | -8.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.5% |
| Forecast horizon | 10y |
| Target operating margin | -10.0% |
| Years to target margin | 5 |
| Sales-to-capital | 0.50 |
| Beta | 1.11 |
| Failure probability | 0.0% |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 9.9% |
| Terminal WACC | 9.5% |
Valuation bridge
| PV of explicit FCFF | -4.18B |
| PV of terminal value | -587.01M |
| Equity value | 0 |
| ÷ shares → per share | $0.00 |
News
bullish +0.60 · 8 articles
- Is Cancer the Turnaround Moderna Has Been Looking for Post-COVID?
- AbbVie Maps Post-HUMIRA Growth With Apogee Deal, Immunology Pipeline
- Unpopular Stocks Walking a Fine Line
- Moderna (MRNA) Ascends While Market Falls: Some Facts to Note
- Eli Lilly Eyes Obesity Access Expansion With Zepbound, Foundayo and Pipeline Bets
- Moderna's COVID Vaccine Was a Historic Success. Could Its Cancer Vaccine Be Even Bigger?
- 3 Cash-Burning Stocks We Approach with Caution
- Moderna’s Cancer Vaccine Win Fuels Broad Push Across Tumor Types
Projected free cash flow to the firm
| Yr | Revenue | Growth | Margin | NOPAT | Reinvest | FCFF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.03B | -8.0% | -112.2% | -1.80B | 0 | -1.80B | -1.64B |
| 2 | 1.90B | -6.7% | -86.7% | -1.30B | 0 | -1.30B | -1.07B |
| 3 | 1.79B | -5.4% | -61.1% | -865.78M | 0 | -865.78M | -651.83M |
| 4 | 1.72B | -4.2% | -35.6% | -482.73M | 0 | -482.73M | -330.63M |
| 5 | 1.67B | -2.9% | -10.0% | -131.84M | 0 | -131.84M | -82.15M |
| 6 | 1.64B | -1.6% | -10.0% | -129.72M | 0 | -129.72M | -73.53M |
| 7 | 1.64B | -0.3% | -10.0% | -129.29M | 0 | -129.29M | -66.67M |
| 8 | 1.65B | 0.9% | -10.0% | -130.51M | 30.91M | -161.42M | -75.72M |
| 9 | 1.69B | 2.2% | -10.0% | -133.41M | 73.42M | -206.83M | -88.27M |
| 10 | 1.75B | 3.5% | -10.0% | -138.08M | 118.21M | -256.29M | -99.50M |
⚠ intrinsic value floored at 0 — the drivers imply the equity claim is worth less than the debt ahead of it · Extreme gap to market price — large, heavily-covered stocks are rarely mispriced this much; the gap likely embeds disruption, decline, or balance-sheet risk the model underweights. Treat as a flag to investigate, not a verdict.