NSC Norfolk Southern
Intrinsic value$57.43
Price (at call)$352.68
Margin of safety
-83.7%
vs market (rating basis)
-44.9%
Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.
⚠ LLM error: empty response; using baseline
The story
Value drivers
| Revenue growth (Y1) | -1.5% |
| Terminal growth | 3.5% |
| Forecast horizon | 10y |
| Target operating margin | 24.0% |
| Years to target margin | 5 |
| Sales-to-capital | 0.50 |
| Beta | 1.27 |
| Failure probability | 0.0% |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 9.6% |
| Terminal WACC | 8.6% |
Valuation bridge
| PV of explicit FCFF | 14.68B |
| PV of terminal value | 13.77B |
| Equity value | 12.90B |
| ÷ shares → per share | $57.43 |
News
neutral -0.10 · 8 articles
- Norfolk Southern, Wabtec set locomotive upgrades to AC power
- Officials Played Down Risks in Ohio Train Disaster, Residents Now Say
- Rail mega-merger revives proposal for new, expanded Atlanta passenger services — and there’s a trucking angle
- Rail consultant returns to lead South Carolina short line
- Norfolk Southern EPS Estimates Northbound: How to Play the Stock?
- Norfolk Southern’s ‘Golden Triangle’ | Why Georgia is Key for Rail
- Norfolk Southern (NSC) Moved, So What Is Drawing Attention Now?
- Do Wall Street Analysts Like Norfolk Southern Stock?
Projected free cash flow to the firm
| Yr | Revenue | Growth | Margin | NOPAT | Reinvest | FCFF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12.35B | -1.5% | 31.3% | 3.03B | 0 | 3.03B | 2.76B |
| 2 | 12.24B | -0.9% | 29.5% | 2.83B | 0 | 2.83B | 2.35B |
| 3 | 12.19B | -0.4% | 27.7% | 2.64B | 0 | 2.64B | 2.01B |
| 4 | 12.21B | 0.2% | 25.9% | 2.47B | 40.61M | 2.43B | 1.69B |
| 5 | 12.30B | 0.7% | 24.0% | 2.32B | 176.32M | 2.14B | 1.35B |
| 6 | 12.45B | 1.3% | 24.0% | 2.35B | 314.22M | 2.03B | 1.17B |
| 7 | 12.68B | 1.8% | 24.0% | 2.39B | 456.61M | 1.93B | 1.02B |
| 8 | 12.98B | 2.4% | 24.0% | 2.45B | 605.89M | 1.84B | 885.32M |
| 9 | 13.37B | 2.9% | 24.0% | 2.52B | 764.64M | 1.75B | 769.85M |
| 10 | 13.83B | 3.5% | 24.0% | 2.61B | 935.67M | 1.67B | 669.33M |
⚠ Extreme gap to market price — large, heavily-covered stocks are rarely mispriced this much; the gap likely embeds disruption, decline, or balance-sheet risk the model underweights. Treat as a flag to investigate, not a verdict.