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PM Philip Morris International

consumer_staples · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-03

HOLD
Intrinsic value$111.28
Price (at call)$187.94
Margin of safety -40.8%
vs market (rating basis) +1.0%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)8.6%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin28.6%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital1.10
Beta0.50
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)6.8%
Terminal WACC8.7%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF83.12B
PV of terminal value136.26B
Equity value173.45B
÷ shares → per share$111.28

News

neutral +0.10 · 8 articles

  • No ETFs Required: How a 64-Year-Old Built a $5,700 Monthly Paycheck From Five Dividend Stocks
  • I've Been Wrong About Philip Morris International Stock for 5 Years. Here's Why I'm Finally Changing My Mind.
  • Is Altria's on! PLUS Shaping Up as Its Next Major Growth Engine?
  • Philip Morris Stock: Is PM Outperforming the Consumer Staples Sector?
  • Altria's Smoke-Free Ambition Has Quietly Narrowed To Its Nicotine Pouch Brand
  • 3 Market-Beating Stocks with Exciting Potential
  • Altria vs. Philip Morris: Which Tobacco Giant Looks Stronger?
  • What’s Going On With Altria Group (MO)?

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 46.19B 8.6% 37.1% 13.74B 3.33B 10.41B 9.75B
2 49.89B 8.0% 34.9% 13.99B 3.38B 10.62B 9.31B
3 53.60B 7.4% 32.8% 14.12B 3.39B 10.73B 8.81B
4 57.29B 6.9% 30.7% 14.12B 3.37B 10.76B 8.26B
5 60.91B 6.3% 28.6% 13.98B 3.30B 10.68B 7.68B
6 64.41B 5.8% 28.6% 14.78B 3.20B 11.58B 7.80B
7 67.76B 5.2% 28.6% 15.55B 3.05B 12.50B 7.88B
8 70.89B 4.6% 28.6% 16.27B 2.86B 13.41B 7.91B
9 73.77B 4.1% 28.6% 16.93B 2.63B 14.30B 7.90B
10 76.36B 3.5% 28.6% 17.52B 2.36B 15.17B 7.84B

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-03$187.94 $111.28 -40.8% HOLD
2026-07-27$193.00 $113.32 -41.3% HOLD
2026-06-23$178.69 $121.37 -32.1% BUY