RCL Royal Caribbean Group
Intrinsic value$161.78
Price (at call)$259.76
Margin of safety
-37.7%
vs market (rating basis)
+79.0%
Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.
⚠ LLM error: unbalanced JSON in response: '{\n "story": "Royal Caribbean is the best-run operator in a consolidated three-player cruise oligopoly, riding record pricing and the Icon-class newbuild cycle. But this is a late-cycle moment: 29.9% '; using baseline
The story
Value drivers
| Revenue growth (Y1) | 26.6% |
| Terminal growth | 3.5% |
| Forecast horizon | 10y |
| Target operating margin | 18.4% |
| Years to target margin | 5 |
| Sales-to-capital | 0.60 |
| Beta | 1.75 |
| Failure probability | 0.0% |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 11.5% |
| Terminal WACC | 8.9% |
Valuation bridge
| PV of explicit FCFF | -2.28B |
| PV of terminal value | 66.27B |
| Equity value | 43.27B |
| ÷ shares → per share | $161.78 |
News
bearish -0.30 · 8 articles
- Royal Caribbean (RCL) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights
- Norwegian Slides 3% as Rising Oil Undercuts Fuel-Cost Relief Hopes; Carnival and Royal Caribbean Trail
- Carnival Stock Declines 16% in a Month: Should You Buy or Wait?
- 1 Value Stock with Competitive Advantages and 2 We Turn Down
- Carnival's Record Booking Curve Extends: Will Pricing Momentum Last?
- Airlines, Cruises, Casinos: Are Things Actually Looking Up?
- Norwegian Cruise Line Just Dropped 16% in a Month: Sell Now, or Buy More?
- 1 of Wall Street’s Favorite Stocks for Long-Term Investors and 2 We Ignore
Projected free cash flow to the firm
| Yr | Revenue | Growth | Margin | NOPAT | Reinvest | FCFF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23.65B | 26.6% | 27.6% | 6.40B | 8.35B | -1.94B | -1.74B |
| 2 | 29.33B | 24.0% | 25.3% | 7.28B | 9.55B | -2.26B | -1.82B |
| 3 | 35.63B | 21.5% | 23.0% | 8.04B | 10.57B | -2.53B | -1.83B |
| 4 | 42.36B | 18.9% | 20.7% | 8.61B | 11.31B | -2.70B | -1.74B |
| 5 | 49.27B | 16.3% | 18.4% | 8.91B | 11.62B | -2.71B | -1.57B |
| 6 | 56.06B | 13.8% | 18.4% | 10.14B | 11.39B | -1.25B | -652.00M |
| 7 | 62.33B | 11.2% | 18.4% | 11.28B | 10.54B | 731.09M | 341.33M |
| 8 | 67.71B | 8.6% | 18.4% | 12.25B | 9.04B | 3.21B | 1.34B |
| 9 | 71.82B | 6.1% | 18.4% | 12.99B | 6.90B | 6.09B | 2.29B |
| 10 | 74.33B | 3.5% | 18.4% | 13.45B | 4.22B | 9.22B | 3.11B |