SMCI Supermicro
Intrinsic value$1.13
Price (at call)$37.00
Margin of safety
-97.0%
vs market (rating basis)
+9.9%
Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.
⚠ LLM error: empty response; using baseline
The story
Value drivers
| Revenue growth (Y1) | 35.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.5% |
| Forecast horizon | 10y |
| Target operating margin | 5.0% |
| Years to target margin | 5 |
| Sales-to-capital | 1.78 |
| Beta | 1.97 |
| Failure probability | 0.0% |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 11.3% |
| Terminal WACC | 8.2% |
Valuation bridge
| PV of explicit FCFF | -26.51B |
| PV of terminal value | 32.66B |
| Equity value | 729.00M |
| ÷ shares → per share | $1.13 |
News
bullish +0.60 · 8 articles
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Joins A Major Enterprise AI Infrastructure Build
- Dell Stock Is Surging Thanks to Massive AI Demand Driven by Tech Infrastructure Spending
- Dell’s Record $60.9 Billion AI Order Quarter Leaves Stock Investors Unimpressed—Here’s Why
- Nvidia, AMD and SMCI Test Key Levels as Rates Stay High
- Dell Surges 9% on Record $95B AI Backlog, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Climbs 4%, Super Micro Ticks Up
- The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights NVIDIA, Super Micro Computer, Semtech, SiTime and Keysight Technologies
- Premarket movers: Dell, GitLab surge and MongoDB tumbles
- Jim Cramer Rejected This AI Stock Before It Rose Over 30% in August
Projected free cash flow to the firm
| Yr | Revenue | Growth | Margin | NOPAT | Reinvest | FCFF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45.50B | 35.0% | 5.0% | 1.82B | 6.64B | -4.83B | -4.33B |
| 2 | 59.83B | 31.5% | 5.0% | 2.39B | 8.07B | -5.68B | -4.58B |
| 3 | 76.58B | 28.0% | 5.0% | 3.06B | 9.43B | -6.38B | -4.62B |
| 4 | 95.34B | 24.5% | 5.0% | 3.80B | 10.56B | -6.76B | -4.40B |
| 5 | 115.36B | 21.0% | 5.0% | 4.60B | 11.27B | -6.67B | -3.90B |
| 6 | 135.55B | 17.5% | 5.0% | 5.41B | 11.37B | -5.96B | -3.13B |
| 7 | 154.53B | 14.0% | 5.0% | 6.17B | 10.68B | -4.52B | -2.13B |
| 8 | 170.75B | 10.5% | 5.0% | 6.81B | 9.13B | -2.32B | -982.82M |
| 9 | 182.70B | 7.0% | 5.0% | 7.29B | 6.73B | 559.86M | 212.77M |
| 10 | 189.10B | 3.5% | 5.0% | 7.54B | 3.60B | 3.94B | 1.35B |
⚠ Extreme gap to market price — large, heavily-covered stocks are rarely mispriced this much; the gap likely embeds disruption, decline, or balance-sheet risk the model underweights. Treat as a flag to investigate, not a verdict.