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SNDK Sandisk

technology · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-04

STRONG BUY
Intrinsic value$970.77
Price (at call)$1,554.99
Margin of safety -37.6%
vs market (rating basis) +35.7%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)35.0%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin31.0%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital0.84
Beta1.15
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)9.9%
Terminal WACC9.3%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF29.41B
PV of terminal value107.97B
Equity value142.14B
÷ shares → per share$970.77

News

bearish -0.30 · 8 articles

  • What Does Sandisk (SNDK) Losing NAND Share To China Mean Now?
  • Bullish EPS Revisions Back IBKR, SNDK, and ROKU
  • China Is Grabbing Memory Market Share. This Stock Could Be a Big Loser.
  • Micron, SanDisk Lag Tech Rally as China Grabs Memory Market Share
  • AVGO Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise on Strong AI Demand
  • Micron's 11% Drop Hasn't Shaken Wall Street's Bull Case
  • Why Sandisk Stock Soared 29% in August
  • Tim Cook, Elon Musk, Andy Jassy, and Jensen Huang All Just Warned Investors About the Same Thing. Spoiler Alert: It's Fantastic News for Micron and Sandisk.

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 17.80B 35.0% 38.1% 5.96B 5.51B 451.66M 410.84M
2 23.40B 31.5% 36.3% 7.47B 6.69B 776.48M 642.45M
3 29.96B 28.0% 34.5% 9.09B 7.82B 1.27B 952.88M
4 37.30B 24.5% 32.7% 10.73B 8.76B 1.97B 1.35B
5 45.13B 21.0% 31.0% 12.27B 9.35B 2.92B 1.82B
6 53.03B 17.5% 31.0% 14.42B 9.43B 4.99B 2.83B
7 60.45B 14.0% 31.0% 16.44B 8.86B 7.58B 3.90B
8 66.80B 10.5% 31.0% 18.16B 7.58B 10.59B 4.96B
9 71.48B 7.0% 31.0% 19.43B 5.58B 13.85B 5.91B
10 73.98B 3.5% 31.0% 20.11B 2.99B 17.13B 6.64B

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-04$1,554.99 $970.77 -37.6% STRONG BUY
2026-07-27$1,436.56 $222.91 -84.5% STRONG SELL
2026-06-23$1,963.60 $239.73 -87.8% STRONG SELL