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SWK Stanley Black & Decker

industrial · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-14

HOLD
Intrinsic value$42.01
Price (at call)$89.24
Margin of safety -52.9%
vs market (rating basis) +2.8%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)-3.7%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin8.6%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital1.02
Beta1.17
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)9.6%
Terminal WACC9.0%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF6.78B
PV of terminal value5.77B
Equity value6.34B
÷ shares → per share$42.01

News

score · 8 articles

  • Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Agreed to Sell Excel Industries. Will a Narrower Portfolio Improve Returns?
  • Howmet Rises 26.5% Year to Date: Should Investors Buy the Stock Now?
  • Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Fall Late Afternoon
  • Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights Lincoln Electric, Stanley Black & Decker, Core & Main and Kennametal
  • 4 Manufacturing Tools Stocks to Watch on Prospering Industry Trends
  • 3 Dividend-Paying Industrial Stocks to Buy Right Now
  • 183-year-old giant tool company closes factory, lays off dozens
  • Why Is Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Up 3.9% Since Last Earnings Report?

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 14.68B -3.7% 8.6% 1.22B 0 1.22B 1.11B
2 14.26B -2.9% 8.6% 1.18B 0 1.18B 987.11M
3 13.95B -2.1% 8.6% 1.16B 0 1.16B 882.03M
4 13.77B -1.3% 8.6% 1.14B 0 1.14B 794.58M
5 13.70B -0.5% 8.6% 1.14B 0 1.14B 721.62M
6 13.74B 0.3% 8.6% 1.14B 39.64M 1.10B 637.70M
7 13.89B 1.1% 8.6% 1.15B 147.47M 1.01B 531.77M
8 14.16B 1.9% 8.6% 1.18B 257.99M 918.66M 442.70M
9 14.54B 2.7% 8.6% 1.21B 373.85M 834.56M 367.10M
10 15.05B 3.5% 8.6% 1.25B 497.90M 752.80M 302.26M

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-14$89.24 $42.01 -52.9% HOLD
2026-06-23$83.81 $39.47 -52.9% HOLD