TSCO Tractor Supply
Intrinsic value$31.68
Price (at call)$33.52
Margin of safety
-5.5%
vs market (rating basis)
+46.0%
Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.
⚠ LLM error: unbalanced JSON in response: '{\n "story": "Tractor Supply is the dominant rural lifestyle retailer — a defensible niche moat in feed, ag supplies and farm-adjacent consumables with limited direct competition. But it is a late-lif'; using baseline
The story
Value drivers
| Revenue growth (Y1) | 3.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.5% |
| Forecast horizon | 10y |
| Target operating margin | 8.5% |
| Years to target margin | 5 |
| Sales-to-capital | 3.62 |
| Beta | 0.50 |
| Failure probability | 0.0% |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.0% |
| Terminal WACC | 9.0% |
Valuation bridge
| PV of explicit FCFF | 7.53B |
| PV of terminal value | 10.55B |
| Equity value | 16.51B |
| ÷ shares → per share | $31.68 |
News
neutral +0.15 · 8 articles
- Is LOW Stock A Buy As EPS Grows While Sales Shrink?
- Tractor Supply’s Petsense selects Instacart for same-day delivery
- Why Cheap LOW Stock Fails Part Of The Value Test
- Uneven Investor Sentiment Toward Hardline Retailers Could Persist Amid Macro Headwinds, UBS Says
- Companies Plow Tariff Refunds Into Price Cuts, Appealing to Stretched Consumers
- The Cash Machine The Market Put On Sale: LOW
- Has Tractor Supply (TSCO) Fallen Far Enough To Look Undervalued?
- How Instacart’s Petsense Partnership Could Shape Tractor Supply’s (TSCO) Recurring Pet Spend Story
Projected free cash flow to the firm
| Yr | Revenue | Growth | Margin | NOPAT | Reinvest | FCFF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16.22B | 3.0% | 8.5% | 1.08B | 130.60M | 952.19M | 889.92M |
| 2 | 16.72B | 3.1% | 8.5% | 1.12B | 136.98M | 978.93M | 855.08M |
| 3 | 17.24B | 3.1% | 8.5% | 1.15B | 143.71M | 1.01B | 822.04M |
| 4 | 17.79B | 3.2% | 8.5% | 1.19B | 150.81M | 1.04B | 790.70M |
| 5 | 18.36B | 3.2% | 8.5% | 1.23B | 158.29M | 1.07B | 760.96M |
| 6 | 18.96B | 3.3% | 8.5% | 1.27B | 166.18M | 1.10B | 732.72M |
| 7 | 19.60B | 3.3% | 8.5% | 1.31B | 174.51M | 1.13B | 705.90M |
| 8 | 20.26B | 3.4% | 8.5% | 1.35B | 183.31M | 1.17B | 680.43M |
| 9 | 20.96B | 3.4% | 8.5% | 1.40B | 192.60M | 1.21B | 656.22M |
| 10 | 21.69B | 3.5% | 8.5% | 1.45B | 202.42M | 1.25B | 633.20M |