ULTA Ulta Beauty
Intrinsic value$395.12
Price (at call)$546.78
Margin of safety
-27.7%
vs market (rating basis)
+31.9%
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The story
Value drivers
| Revenue growth (Y1) | 6.7% |
| Terminal growth | 3.5% |
| Forecast horizon | 10y |
| Target operating margin | 9.8% |
| Years to target margin | 5 |
| Sales-to-capital | 4.52 |
| Beta | 0.85 |
| Failure probability | 0.0% |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.8% |
| Terminal WACC | 9.5% |
Valuation bridge
| PV of explicit FCFF | 7.47B |
| PV of terminal value | 9.06B |
| Equity value | 16.89B |
| ÷ shares → per share | $395.12 |
News
score · 8 articles
- Ulta Beauty Sees Resilient Demand, Eyes Fragrance, Wellness Growth After Target Exit
- 1 Mid-Cap Stock for Long-Term Investors and 2 We Ignore
- Here Are Tuesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Abercrombie & Fitch, Affirm Holdings, Eagle Materials, Klarna Group, Martin Marietta Materials, Oklo, Qualcomm, Robinhood Markets, Ulta Beauty, and More
- 1 Consumer Stock for Long-Term Investors and 2 Facing Challenges
- Walmart, Ulta and Other Retailers That Can Win With AI
- Tractor Supply’s Petsense selects Instacart for same-day delivery
- WOOF or ULTA: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
- MarketBeat Week in Review – 08/31 - 09/04
Projected free cash flow to the firm
| Yr | Revenue | Growth | Margin | NOPAT | Reinvest | FCFF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13.82B | 6.7% | 12.0% | 1.25B | 191.33M | 1.06B | 973.44M |
| 2 | 14.69B | 6.3% | 11.4% | 1.27B | 193.31M | 1.07B | 907.94M |
| 3 | 15.57B | 6.0% | 10.9% | 1.28B | 194.06M | 1.08B | 842.18M |
| 4 | 16.45B | 5.6% | 10.3% | 1.28B | 193.49M | 1.09B | 776.68M |
| 5 | 17.31B | 5.3% | 9.8% | 1.28B | 191.52M | 1.09B | 711.97M |
| 6 | 18.16B | 4.9% | 9.8% | 1.34B | 188.09M | 1.15B | 694.22M |
| 7 | 18.99B | 4.6% | 9.8% | 1.40B | 183.15M | 1.22B | 674.60M |
| 8 | 19.79B | 4.2% | 9.8% | 1.46B | 176.68M | 1.28B | 653.28M |
| 9 | 20.55B | 3.9% | 9.8% | 1.52B | 168.66M | 1.35B | 630.47M |
| 10 | 21.27B | 3.5% | 9.8% | 1.57B | 159.11M | 1.41B | 606.36M |