UNP Union Pacific Corporation
Intrinsic value$85.07
Price (at call)$282.48
Margin of safety
-69.9%
vs market (rating basis)
-29.3%
Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.
⚠ LLM error: empty response; using baseline
The story
Value drivers
| Revenue growth (Y1) | -0.5% |
| Terminal growth | 3.5% |
| Forecast horizon | 10y |
| Target operating margin | 28.7% |
| Years to target margin | 5 |
| Sales-to-capital | 0.51 |
| Beta | 0.97 |
| Failure probability | 0.0% |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.7% |
| Terminal WACC | 8.8% |
Valuation bridge
| PV of explicit FCFF | 38.52B |
| PV of terminal value | 42.56B |
| Equity value | 50.54B |
| ÷ shares → per share | $85.07 |
News
bullish +0.60 · 8 articles
- Union Pacific (UNP) Could Be 16% Undervalued As Volume Trends Come Into Focus
- Why CSX Stock And U.S. Railroads Are Back In Focus As Diesel Hits Records
- CSX (CSX) Plans Broad Rail Access Push If Transcontinental Merger Is Approved
- Union Pacific Stock Rallies Following UBS Upgrade to Buy Rating
- Union Pacific Sees Broad Volume Growth as Fuel Costs Threaten Operating Ratio
- Auto & Transport Roundup: Market Talk
- Union Pacific Set to Benefit From Continued Volume Gains in 2027, UBS Says
- Union Pacific Gets A Buy Rating. High Fuel Costs Make It An Attractive Shipping Option.
Projected free cash flow to the firm
| Yr | Revenue | Growth | Margin | NOPAT | Reinvest | FCFF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25.29B | -0.5% | 39.7% | 7.82B | 0 | 7.82B | 7.20B |
| 2 | 25.27B | -0.0% | 37.0% | 7.28B | 0 | 7.28B | 6.16B |
| 3 | 25.37B | 0.4% | 34.2% | 6.77B | 197.78M | 6.57B | 5.11B |
| 4 | 25.59B | 0.8% | 31.5% | 6.27B | 421.23M | 5.85B | 4.19B |
| 5 | 25.91B | 1.3% | 28.7% | 5.80B | 649.31M | 5.15B | 3.39B |
| 6 | 26.36B | 1.7% | 28.7% | 5.90B | 885.06M | 5.02B | 3.04B |
| 7 | 26.93B | 2.2% | 28.7% | 6.03B | 1.13B | 4.90B | 2.73B |
| 8 | 27.64B | 2.6% | 28.7% | 6.19B | 1.39B | 4.79B | 2.46B |
| 9 | 28.48B | 3.1% | 28.7% | 6.37B | 1.67B | 4.70B | 2.22B |
| 10 | 29.48B | 3.5% | 28.7% | 6.60B | 1.97B | 4.63B | 2.01B |