UPS United Parcel Service
Intrinsic value$54.73
Price (at call)$99.06
Margin of safety
-44.8%
vs market (rating basis)
+8.0%
Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.
⚠ LLM error: empty response; using baseline
The story
Value drivers
| Revenue growth (Y1) | -4.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.5% |
| Forecast horizon | 10y |
| Target operating margin | 7.7% |
| Years to target margin | 5 |
| Sales-to-capital | 2.23 |
| Beta | 1.04 |
| Failure probability | 0.0% |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.7% |
| Terminal WACC | 8.6% |
Valuation bridge
| PV of explicit FCFF | 30.67B |
| PV of terminal value | 34.16B |
| Equity value | 46.56B |
| ÷ shares → per share | $54.73 |
News
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- 5 Stocks, 5 Different Industries, 1 Thing in Common: Reliable Income
- Longtime Christmas decor retailer files for bankruptcy
- UPS vs FedEx: Which Dividend Is Actually Stronger for Income Investors
- UPS (UPS) Stock Could Be 40% Undervalued Despite Strike Threats
- Amazon, Walmart Among 6 Companies Returning Tariff Savings — How It Impacts Your Budget
- United Parcel Service (UPS) Ascends While Market Falls: Some Facts to Note
Projected free cash flow to the firm
| Yr | Revenue | Growth | Margin | NOPAT | Reinvest | FCFF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 86.30B | -4.0% | 7.7% | 5.19B | 0 | 5.19B | 4.78B |
| 2 | 83.53B | -3.2% | 7.7% | 5.03B | 0 | 5.03B | 4.25B |
| 3 | 81.56B | -2.4% | 7.7% | 4.91B | 0 | 4.91B | 3.82B |
| 4 | 80.31B | -1.5% | 7.7% | 4.83B | 0 | 4.83B | 3.46B |
| 5 | 79.76B | -0.7% | 7.7% | 4.80B | 0 | 4.80B | 3.16B |
| 6 | 79.88B | 0.1% | 7.7% | 4.81B | 53.25M | 4.75B | 2.88B |
| 7 | 80.67B | 1.0% | 7.7% | 4.85B | 353.62M | 4.50B | 2.51B |
| 8 | 82.14B | 1.8% | 7.7% | 4.94B | 660.37M | 4.28B | 2.19B |
| 9 | 84.32B | 2.7% | 7.7% | 5.08B | 981.21M | 4.09B | 1.93B |
| 10 | 87.28B | 3.5% | 7.7% | 5.25B | 1.32B | 3.93B | 1.70B |