VST Vistra Corp.
Intrinsic value$11.41
Price (at call)$140.73
Margin of safety
-91.9%
vs market (rating basis)
-68.4%
Model unavailable; showing baseline valuation.
⚠ LLM error: empty response; using baseline
The story
Value drivers
| Return on equity (normalized) | 15.0% |
| Book-value growth (Y1) | 8.0% |
| Terminal book growth | 3.0% |
| Beta | 1.41 |
| Failure probability | 0.0% |
| Cost of equity | 11.3% |
Valuation bridge
| PV of excess returns | 657.20M |
| PV of terminal excess | 551.31M |
| Equity value | 3.83B |
| ÷ shares → per share | $11.41 |
News
bearish -0.30 · 8 articles
- Vistra Corp. (VST) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights
- Elon Musk Says AI Data Centers Are Lowering Electricity Prices for Consumers. Here’s What We Found When We Ran the Numbers.
- Can GE Vernova's Rising Free Cash Flow Strengthen Its Growth Story?
- Vistra’s Price Has Edged Downward Throught 2026: One Analyst Says It’s Due to Double Soon.
- Forget NVDA: Peter Thiel's New $419 Million Portfolio Bets Big on the Power Behind AI
- Is Vistra Stock Underperforming the Nasdaq?
- What's Going On With Vistra Stock Friday?
- Sector Update: Energy Stocks Decline Late Afternoon
Projected excess returns on equity
| Yr | Book equity | ROE | Excess return | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.62B | 15.0% | 96.35M | 86.55M |
| 2 | 2.83B | 14.9% | 101.93M | 82.25M |
| 3 | 3.04B | 14.8% | 107.23M | 77.73M |
| 4 | 3.25B | 14.8% | 112.18M | 73.04M |
| 5 | 3.46B | 14.7% | 116.69M | 68.25M |
| 6 | 3.66B | 14.6% | 120.68M | 63.40M |
| 7 | 3.85B | 14.5% | 124.09M | 58.56M |
| 8 | 4.03B | 14.5% | 126.86M | 53.78M |
| 9 | 4.19B | 14.4% | 128.93M | 49.10M |
| 10 | 4.34B | 14.3% | 130.25M | 44.55M |
⚠ Extreme gap to market price — large, well-covered names are rarely mispriced this much; likely embeds risk the model underweights. A flag, not a verdict.