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WMT Walmart

consumer_staples · valued with glm-5.2 medium conviction · deep-dived 2026-09-11

HOLD
Intrinsic value$45.65
Price (at call)$105.73
Margin of safety -56.8%
vs market (rating basis) -17.4%

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The story

Value drivers

Revenue growth (Y1)5.3%
Terminal growth3.5%
Forecast horizon10y
Target operating margin4.3%
Years to target margin5
Sales-to-capital5.00
Beta0.59
Failure probability0.0%
Cost of capital (WACC)7.5%
Terminal WACC9.2%

Valuation bridge

PV of explicit FCFF153.55B
PV of terminal value249.23B
Equity value362.18B
÷ shares → per share$45.65

News

neutral +0.10 · 8 articles

  • Primark to Enter Mexico Via Liverpool Partnership
  • Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon
  • What Happens To Home Depot Stock If Shoppers Keep Visiting Less?
  • Walmart Takes Direct Aim at DoorDash and Uber
  • Is The AI Capex Surge A Threat To Amazon Stock?
  • Walmart Just Made a Move That Could Change How Millions of Shoppers See It
  • Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Thursday Afternoon
  • 4 Retail Stocks to Buy, and 4 to Sell in a Tough Time for Shoppers

Projected free cash flow to the firm

YrRevenueGrowthMarginNOPATReinvestFCFFPV
1 774.64B 5.3% 4.3% 25.20B 7.76B 17.44B 16.22B
2 813.95B 5.1% 4.3% 26.47B 7.86B 18.61B 16.11B
3 853.66B 4.9% 4.3% 27.77B 7.94B 19.82B 15.97B
4 893.62B 4.7% 4.3% 29.07B 7.99B 21.07B 15.79B
5 933.70B 4.5% 4.3% 30.37B 8.02B 22.35B 15.58B
6 973.73B 4.3% 4.3% 31.67B 8.01B 23.67B 15.35B
7 1.01T 4.1% 4.3% 32.97B 7.97B 25.00B 15.09B
8 1.05T 3.9% 4.3% 34.25B 7.89B 26.36B 14.80B
9 1.09T 3.7% 4.3% 35.52B 7.79B 27.73B 14.49B
10 1.13T 3.5% 4.3% 36.76B 7.64B 29.12B 14.15B

History

DatePriceIntrinsicMoSRating
2026-09-11$105.73 $45.65 -56.8% HOLD
2026-08-04$110.71 $48.06 -56.6% HOLD
2026-06-23$119.42 $52.93 -55.7% SELL