2026-09-28

Universal Health Services · healthcare opus

Durable hospital and behavioral franchise at under 8x EBIT; the market is pricing policy fear, not the economics.

Netflix · entertainment opus

Streaming's profitable winner; fairly priced unless ads and pricing push margins well beyond 36%.

Jack Henry & Associates · payments opus

Wide-moat community-bank toll booth, fairly steady, but still priced modestly above intrinsic value.

Citizens Financial Group · bank opus

ROE of 8.8-9.5% cannot justify 1.14x book; the market is paying for a recovery that has not arrived.

Verizon · telecom opus

Durable cash cow priced near fair value; the yield is safe, but growth and leverage cap upside.

Dell Technologies · technology opus

A strong AI-server growth story, but thin hardware margins can't justify a price that assumes permanent hypergrowth.

Intercontinental Exchange · exchanges opus

Superb exchange-and-data moat, but the price already assumes perfection; wait for a better entry.

Brown–Forman · beverage opus

Iconic whiskey franchise in a cyclical and secular slump; fairly priced, not yet a bargain.

General Motors · auto opus

Regulatory tailwind helps trucks, but through-cycle ROE still trails cost of equity; the stock prices in a peak.

CenterPoint Energy · utility opus

Quality Texas wires utility earning allowed returns, but 2.2x book still prices in growth that allowed returns cannot justify.

Ross Stores · apparel opus

Great off-price compounder, but at 28x earnings the price already assumes flawless growth and peak margins.

Chipotle Mexican Grill · restaurant opus

A great brand priced for renewed growth while traffic and margins are both slipping; still overvalued.

Axon Enterprise · aerospace opus

Moat is real and growth persists, but even at 430 the price outruns plausible GAAP margins.

DoorDash · retail opus

Local delivery network with durable density moat; the price already assumes flawless margin expansion.

W. R. Berkley Corporation · insurance opus

Best-in-class underwriter, but 2.6x book assumes a hard market that is already cresting.

Lam Research · semiconductor opus

A top-quality etch and deposition franchise riding the AI upcycle, but the price already assumes the cycle never turns.

Vertiv · industrial opus

Excellent AI cooling and power franchise, but even after the selloff the price assumes a perpetual boom.

Sherwin-Williams · materials opus

Elite paint moat worth a longer runway, but $329 still assumes a housing rebound we can't underwrite.

Northern Trust · capital_markets opus

Quality custody franchise, but the market is capitalizing rate-inflated returns that should mean-revert to mid-teens.

Texas Pacific Land Corporation · energy opus

Superb Permian royalty franchise, but the price already assumes decades of flawless growth.

Weyerhaeuser · reit opus

Cheaper now, but trough margins and capex-heavy AFFO still don't justify 15x FFO.

General Mills · consumer_staples opus

A shrinking but cash-rich cereal franchise priced for permanent impairment; normalized margins suggest modest upside.

Viatris · pharma opus

Shrinking but cash-rich generics giant; GAAP losses hide a fairly priced, levered cash machine.

Palo Alto Networks · software opus

A best-in-class security platform, but at about 27x sales the price already assumes a flawless AI-era compounding run.